The Transition Begins: What Lies Ahead for Singapore’s New 4G Leadership?
A commentary by David Black, Founder and CEO, Blackbox Research
Following what seemed like an eternity of commentary, explication and false starts, Singapore’s 4G class have finally graduated following the swearing-in of Lawrence Wong as Singapore’s fourth Prime Minister on 15 May 2024.
Wong’s first Cabinet counts nine 4G Ministers amongst its ranks, accounting for almost half of all the positions. However, by appointing Heng Swee Keat and Gan Kim Yong as Deputy PMs, the PAP has hedged and not moved too fast.
The transition comes at a time when Singapore has, arguably, never been stronger on the international stage, having held up better than most during the pandemic and emerging as Asia’s premier financial centre, stealing Hong Kong’s crown.
But this strength also carries real challenges for the new PM and his 4G colleagues. Singapore’s ever-increasing wealth and a rapidly aging population will need to be managed in the context of a slower growth economy that is very different from the early ‘Asian Tiger’ era. As the new Prime Minister himself said in his interview with Time: “You cannot expect high wages and low cost.”
So, what does the current domestic landscape look like for the new PM and his team? As things stand now, things are looking up and there is some evidence to suggest the transition has already served up an initial bounce for the Government:
“Singapore’s ever-increasing wealth and a rapidly aging population will need to be managed in the context of a slower growth economy that is very different from the early ‘Asian Tiger’ era. ”
The new PM has a personal approval rating of 76%, which is up 2 points since February. Although this is only a small bump, it’s important to remember he was already widely perceived to be doing a good job as Finance Minister and DPM.
So, it seems Prime Minister Wong has a fair bit of credit in the bank with Singaporeans, but what else is the polling telling us?
First, what do Singaporeans make of the new Prime Minister as a leader and personality? How well do they know him?
Well, at this stage only 12% of Singaporeans say they have a clear idea of what type of leader PM Wong will be, while 42% say they have some idea. One-third (33%) say they are unsure, while 11% say they have no idea.
Importantly, it is younger Singaporeans who profess to know least about him – more than half (52%) say they are either unsure or have no idea what type of Prime Minister he will be, indicating that he will need to be visible and engage with younger voters in coming months. His social media activity already points to some comfort in this space.
Second, what do Singaporeans expect from the new PM? What should his priorities be?
Given ongoing speculation surrounding the timing of the next General Election (GE), Singaporeans appear less concerned about Lawrence Wong establishing a distinct identity as leader and more interested in how he tackles the key issues of the day.
When asked what the new PM should focus on if the GE was held today:
52% say cost of living issues
23% say inflation reduction
17% say the economy and jobs respectively
16% say housing affordability
In contrast:
Only 5% think the new PM should concentrate on convincing Singaporeans why he is the best person to be PM
5% think he should communicate his personal values
4% think he should focus on changing/updating the image of the PAP
Younger voters are more likely to single out foreign policy and helping low-income Singaporeans as key GE issues, while Millennials are more likely to single out the economy and housing affordability.
Decision Intelligence Debrief
Singaporeans have given an initial thumbs up to the top leadership transition and it is evident the new PM assumes the role having built a solid reputation as Finance Minister and in demonstrating his capabilities during the pandemic. It is safe to say that he starts off with a high degree of goodwill and expectation amongst Singaporeans.
Early indications are that Singaporeans remain reliably pragmatic and more interested in what the leadership change will produce for them personally. To that extent, they appear to care less about the new Prime Minister crafting a distinct style or image for himself and more about what he can achieve when it comes to the major challenges that face Singapore today. In all likelihood, Singaporeans have little appetite for lengthy introductions. There is no easing into the job of Prime Minister – the hard work starts now.
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