The Singapore Agenda in 2024: A Year of Transition
As a long-time observer of the Singapore community, Blackbox has collected and distilled much contemporary data that helps elucidate Singaporean sentiment as the city-state embarks on what promises to be a formative and transitional year. This piece surveys the state of play in Singapore at the moment, looking back at major developments in the year that was and forecasting what is to come in 2024.
As we look at matters through the interrelated domains of Politics, the Economy, and Society, what we find is that the economy is very much regarded as the heart of that trifecta. For policymakers, getting a grasp on a challenging economic environment will be the no.1 priority, and improvements in the economic domain will foster warmer social sentiment and help clear the slate for a busy political agenda in 2024.
A Packed Political Agenda
It is fair to say that Singapore faced a more turbulent political year in 2023 than it is used to. Ill-advised liaisons led to the loss of several MPs from both sides of the aisle, and Ministers Shanmugam and Balakrishnan would have preferred to avoid the indignity of having to publicly defend themselves over their Ridout Road rentals. Far more significant, of course, is the ongoing corruption charges against now-former Minister of Transport, S Iswaran – the most serious case of its kind the authorities have had to deal with in decades. With Iswaran vehement in his denial of all the 27 charges laid out in January, the case promises to be a dominant thread throughout 2024.
Similarly, the investigation into large-scale money laundering has uncovered some staggering revelations – total assets frozen in relation to the case now stand at a reported SG$3 billion – and will remain a pre-eminent topic of national conversation for some time to come given the scale and complexity of the case.
Recent community insights from our SensingSG and 2023: Singapore’s Year in Review studies unsurprisingly demonstrated that all of these issues commanded the close attention of the Singapore community, but, interestingly, while missteps were undoubtedly embarrassing for those involved, our data suggests that no severe, long-term political damage was done. It will be interesting to see how recent developments in all these situations have shifted community sentiment when we release our next round of 2024 SensingSG insights in February 2024.
The political challenges of 2023 have served to cast a more intense focus on Singapore's political dynamics than the ruling party has experienced in recent times. With Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong poised to succeed Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong—a transition most analysts predict will occur before the PAP Conference in November 2024—and a General Election likely to follow, it is evident that politics will remain a top priority for citizens throughout the year.
The impending stepping down of PM Lee will mark a historic milestone for Singapore. Having held the office for two decades, PM Lee's departure paves the way for DPM Wong to become only the country's fourth Prime Minister since its independence in 1965. The “4G leadership” transition has had its fair share of hiccups and delays, so DPM Wong's succession is a much-anticipated event and it will be a genuinely novel experience for Singaporeans to have a new leader at the helm.
DPM Wong, who played a pivotal role in managing Singapore's Covid response, has earned widespread recognition for his effective handling of the crisis and his sound economic policies, exemplified by a series of substantial Budgets. However, ascending to the nation's highest office will inevitably intensify scrutiny. It remains to be seen whether he will garner the same level of respect, trust, and popularity that PM Lee has enjoyed.
Whether the General Election occurs in late 2024 or, as seems more likely, in early 2025, this year will nonetheless be treated as an "election year." As such, we can expect that all major governmental actions and statements – not least those related to the prime ministerial leadership change and the unfolding of the Iswaran corruption case – will be closely scrutinised with electoral considerations in mind.
The ruling party, no doubt, will hope to face fewer unexpected challenges than those encountered in 2023. With such a packed political agenda to manage, they will be happy to put 2023's issues behind them, reboot, and tackle the national agenda with a clean slate – and top of that list is the economy.
"It's the Economy, Stupid!"
Whatever political maneuvering is in store for 2024, nothing is more important to the Singapore community right now than the economy. Time and again, Blackbox data from throughout 2023 consistently revealed that the primary concern for Singaporeans are everyday economic issues.
Our "Healthy, Wealthy, or Wise?" study conducted across ASEAN in October 2023 indicated that Singaporeans are more focused on financial matters and career progression than any of their Southeast Asian counterparts. Meanwhile, SensingSG (Nov 2023) showed that Singaporeans see “Cost of Living” as by far and away their most acute concern right now – four times more than the issues ranked second (salaries and wages) and third (housing affordability), which were also economics-related. The Good Governance Index also reflects this sentiment, with Cost of Living scoring lowest, just below concerns about GST and COE. Notably, a quarter (26%) of Singaporeans anticipate being in a worse financial position next year compared to their current situation.
All of these concerns appear well founded. At 1.2%, Singapore’s GDP growth was anaemic in 2023, and represents a worrying downturn from 2022’s 3.6% growth. Indeed, aside from the Covid rebound of 7.2% in 2021, Singapore’s much vaunted economy has not returned higher than 5% GDP growth since 2011.
Global structural challenges, wars, and other factors have undeniably contributed to inflation, rising interest rates, and increased cost of goods. However, the timing of the GST rise has been criticised in some quarters as inopportune amidst these economic pressures. To mitigate the impact, measures such as the CDC Vouchers scheme and Assurance Package have been implemented. As of January 2024, more than SG$10 billion has been committed to the Assurance Package. The government will beware of the danger of once extraordinary fiscal measures swiftly becoming normalised, setting expectations that prove challenging to reverse in the future.
Despite such direct financial support from the government, sentiment towards the economy and personal finances remains muted. Our Year in Review poll found that only 50% of respondents feel that Singapore made economic progress in 2023, and almost two-in-five Singaporeans (37%) feel the economy is going to get worse in the next year (SensingSG). It comes as no surprise, then, that when we asked respondents for their new year wishes for 2024, “better economic conditions” was the clear no.1 choice – trumping even the appointment of new PM Lawrence Wong into a distant second place.
Effectively navigating these complex economic conditions is important not only for Singapore's financial health, but will also be fundamental for positive outcomes to be realised across both the political and social landscapes in 2024 too.
A Stable Social Landscape
Zooming out to assess the broader community sentiment on social issues, the current outlook is broadly optimistic. The government's Forward Singapore exercise, which has been proactively engaging Singaporeans across all walks of life since 2022 with the goal of refreshing the social compact, has been a welcome boon for making social issues a bigger part of the national conversation, and we have detected a vein of optimism in our SensingSG data. A significant majority (79%) of Singaporeans believe the country is heading in the right direction, and the Good Governance Scorecard reflects high satisfaction ratings across numerous social issues, including education, race relations, elderly care, community engagement, government accountability, moral standards, and sustainability. On our “What Matters Most?” scale, social issues did not feature prominently as concerns, overshadowed as they were by economic issues.
Specifically addressing the perennial “Big Issues” Singapore faces, the situation appears positive for now. The repeal of 377A in late 2022 marked a significant advancement for the LGBTQ community without any adverse societal impacts. There is currently not an alarming amount of anti-immigration sentiment, and it doesn’t seem likely to escalate to the contentious levels seen in the 2011 General Election. Singapore maintains high education standards and low crime rates, though the sharp increase in scams and online crimes is a growing concern for 2024.
Indeed, technology has had a significant social impact in recent times. The scale of online harms perpetuated on Singaporeans, most commonly manifested by phishing scams, is alarmingly high (and rising). Citizens are feeling less safe online and increasing skepticism of digital services is an unwanted dynamic for a society that places so much strategic stock on its position as a global leader in tech. The rapid advancements made by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in 2023 is another example of the transformative social impact technology is having. At the national level, Singapore has been making strides by being a major multilateral player in AI governance and regulation, and at the everyday level most workplaces now have some kind of AI solutions as part of daily operations.
With the rise of AI in the workplace, targeted and robust initiatives as laid out by Singapore's updated National AI Strategy will prove instrumental in building a modern workforce fit for purpose in the modern global economy. Our data has detected anxiety among workers that AI could potentially make them obsolete, a contributing factor towards a general sense of disenchantment in Singapore workplaces at present, especially among younger workers.
Addressing this, President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the World Economic Forum on 17 January 2024, emphasised the importance of social policies in tandem with industrial policy. He highlighted the need for a systematic approach to developing human capital, starting with high quality education and a constant replenishing of skills. He stressed that this effort requires the active participation of the public sector, mobilisation of employers, and motivation of individuals, calling for a new generation of social policies focused on human capital replenishments throughout life: "For industrial policy to succeed, it has to be accompanied with social policies on an industrial scale."
Perceptions of limited career advancement opportunities, trends such as “quiet quitting,” job hopping, CPF concerns for gig workers, and debates over the salary expectations of new graduates, have been prominent in recent discourse around careers and employment. While the macro picture remains healthy enough – unemployment numbers are low and most workers' salaries are rising year-on-year – the government will want to continue to work with industry to provide rewarding opportunities for workers within a thriving economy. Continued upskilling of the workforce will be vital here, and the work of SkillsFuture increasingly important. All of these are issues businesses and government stakeholders will be keen to address to ensure economic inequality doesn't drive social inequality.
Lastly, the persistently low total fertility rate – a mere 1.04 for the resident population in 2022, a historic low and only half of the replacement rate of 2.1 – remains a critical demographic issue. As Singapore's society ages, substantial shifts in socio-economic dynamics will be needed, affecting healthcare, medical insurance, financial planning, and the development of a “longevity economy”. Among much else, an aging population will perpetuate dependence on foreign labour and influence the political and policy-making landscape due to a larger retired voter demographic. There is no magic bullet to remedy a structural issue as large as this overnight, so persistently creative policymaking will need to go hand-in-hand with innovative business solutions to allow Singapore to age gracefully and prosperously.
Conclusion: Standing At a Pivotal Juncture
Singapore stands at a pivotal juncture and 2024 looks set to be year marked by significant political transitions, complex economic challenges, and social evolution. It is evident that the Singapore community is profoundly engaged and responsive to these changes, and Blackbox will continue to observe, analyse and report on the shifting sentiments as the year progresses. 2024 is a year that promises not just challenges, but also opportunities for growth and renewal for the ever-resilient and dynamic Singapore, and the direction it takes will not only shape its immediate future but also set the tone for its long-term trajectory.
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