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The People’s Action Party’s (PAP) recent announcement of Lawrence Wong as its next leader (thus designating him as the next PM-in-waiting) marks a watershed moment for the ruling party in Singapore. Not only does it kick off the process of political transition as the country emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it also represents a shift from how party succession was managed in the past. As Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said following the announcement, the PAP took an approach “which encourages candour, introspection, and objectivity, yet without impairing mutual relationship and trust amongst the team”.
In other words, we can’t afford any injuries.
For those amongst us who love to speculate on such things, the decision to select Wong came as no real surprise. However, the choice still carries some level of risk. Taking charge of one of the world’s most successful nations over the last half century is no easy task, especially as we head into an increasingly bifurcated global environment.
So why Lawrence Wong, and why now? The current Finance Minister’s biography has been well documented in the media since the announcement, but it is nonetheless worthwhile reflecting on how we got here and why the PAP selected a candidate who until the pandemic was not viewed as being amongst the frontrunners.
Here are five key factors we think paved the way for the decision.
1. A pathway emerged that was not there previously
As recently as two-and-a-bit years ago, you would have gotten long odds on Lawrence Wong becoming the next leader of the PAP. While there has never really been a clear frontrunner for the job, at least two key things occurred that provided the opportunity for Wong.
The first one was, of course, the pandemic. More than any other candidate, Wong was not only seen to carry out his ministerial responsibilities dutifully during the crisis, but he also managed to project a degree of warmth and empathy as reflected by his emotional speech supporting frontline workers during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Instantly, he enjoyed an outpouring of online support amongst the Singapore public, which in turn, catapulted his profile.
By way of contrast, Chan Chun Sing—who had the political task of calming an anxious public after the River Valley High School killing in July 2021—projected a thoughtful and reflective stance. While he managed the aftermath of the incident both carefully and admirably, his oration following the incident did not really shift public opinion.
Second, the announcement a year ago by Heng Swee Keat that he was going to step down from being the next leader of the PAP not only opened the door for others but also highlighted the challenges faced by the fourth-generation (4G) leaders as they seek to keep pace with a fast-changing society. By showing he could connect with the anxiety being felt by many at the time, Wong demonstrated that he was someone who was relatable.
2. The local political landscape has evolved
Apart from the impacts of the pandemic, there have been longer-term community shifts in Singapore. Our focus groups in recent years consistently show that Singaporeans are looking for different leadership styles whether it is in politics, business, or wider society. Possessing ‘soft skills’ is now more valued than it might have been in earlier generations.
The ability to be proactive is also crucial at a time when social media can erupt en masse. One only has to look at how local banks failed to properly crisis manage financial scammers to recognise how easy it is to appear out of touch when public expectations are not met.
Furthermore, the last Singapore General Election campaign showed that the PAP’s control of the political narrative may not be what it once was. Not only was The Workers’ Party manifesto seen by many as a match for the ruling party, the respective campaign strategies and public debates also revealed that the PAP no longer has a monopoly on constructive ideas. The policy space has certainly become more competitive in recent times.
Finally, it can be argued that stakeholder management has also become more complex and nuanced in Singapore. While criticism or open confrontation towards Government policy is still neither commonplace nor robust, online commentary is often highly fragmented and reveals a society with a more diverse range of opinions than it is sometimes given credit for. Moving forward, Singapore may be less in need of a political leader who can wield a big stick but more one who is capable of squaring numerous circles.
3. Community polling showed Lawrence Wong as the frontrunner
While Blackbox does not regularly publish political ‘beauty contest’ numbers, the several times we have asked Singaporeans who they want to see as the next PM, Lawrence Wong has been the favoured candidate.
Our most recent polling was in February 2022, and at that time, public preference for Wong as the next PM was three times higher than either Chan Chun Sing or Ong Ye Kung. Most notably, however, preference was highest amongst the over 60s who will represent more than 20% of all voters at the next General Election in Singapore.
While we are not privy to information as to whether the PAP’s own polling influenced the leadership outcome, this factor was surely not lost on smarter political minds who know well that for all the talk of Gen Z and what they want, when it comes to the ballot box, it is the grey vote that will count the most at the next General Election.
Despite all this, however, none of the three leading candidates have ever enjoyed majority support (+50%) in our polling. Indeed, more than 40% of those polled in February 2022 said they preferred someone else or were still undecided. While we can expect these numbers to shift now that the choice is public, it does show that the PM-in-waiting still has a lot of work ahead of him.
4. The alternative candidates have not offered a distinct vision to set them apart
With all the talk in recent years about the new crop of ‘4G leaders’ and the need for them to establish themselves as worthy inheritors of the PAP’s successful legacy, it has been surprising that no one has really offered a clear or unique vision for Singapore’s future. Rather, competence and managerial aptitude appear to have been more important qualifications.
While a mastery of day-to-day political challenges is important, it is nothing less than what is expected amongst a population that is wealthier, well-educated, and finely tuned to the pace of new technologies and life in a global city. To stand out, today’s leaders have to offer something different.
In truth, none of the front runners have really ‘broken the mould’ or even attempted to do so. This is clearly by design. More than ever, the PAP remains wedded to communicating a sense of continuity and smooth succession despite the fact that both the domestic and global landscapes are changing rapidly. As such, those who seek to lead face a paradoxical situation in which they must, first and foremost, demonstrate their links to legacy more than a path to the future.
Given this, the ability to connect emotionally with the times and make good use of social media appear to be the only viable differentiators.
5. The new leader needs a runway before the next General Election
Speculation surrounding the next leader of the PAP has dragged on for several years. The party has already endured one false start with Heng Swee Keat’s withdrawal from the race.
The longer this has gone on, the greater the uncertainty and the higher the risk that the PAP might be seen as lacking decisiveness. Uncertainty is the great killer in politics and can compound quickly. Narratives tend to multiply, fuelling every rumour under the sun. In the Singapore context, the elapsed time has also given rise to more and more questions about the 4G leaders and their readiness to lead. As such, it was crucial that the succession question was settled sooner rather than later.
Furthermore, the new leader needs time to settle in and win over the public before the next General Election, which is slated to take place in 2025. It is clear that the Government has important decisions ahead to ensure that Singapore not only emerges from the pandemic in good shape but also has a good read on what lies ahead.
Some of these key decisions have already been flagged in the 2022 Budget, the first one overseen by Lawrence Wong in his role as Finance Minister. As the architect of, arguably, the most fundamental fiscal changes seen in Singapore in a generation, Wong now has the blessings of the party to oversee the reconfiguration of the island city-state as it looks to build on the success of the last 50 plus years.
Author: Blackbox Research Team
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